Trump won. Now what?
November 7, 2024
As I write this, the Associated Press has just called the 2024 presidential election for Donald Trump. Mark Hadley repeated the old adage in a recent podcast episode of ours, “America sneezes and the world catches a cold”.
As much as I’d like to believe that what happens in the United States has little consequence for those of us living thousands of kilometres away, we don’t have that privilege.
Many are wondering what this will mean, particularly in the areas of:
- Immigration
- Presidential power
- Abortion
- Foreign policy
- The economy
immigration
Trump’s first act in the area of immigration is likely going to what he’s calling “Operation Aurora”. It will target between 11 and 14 million people—some of whom entered the US illegally, but also others who were born the US and have become de facto residents.
Trump also says he’ll use the death penalty for any undocumented immigrant who has killed an American citizen or police officer.
presidential power
One of the most heated debates of 2024 politics is the extent to which a sitting president can use their power to commit acts that otherwise would be illegal for any other citizen. Special counsel Jack Smith has executed a series of indictments against Trump for his part in the January 6 riots, as well as for Trump’s theft and unlawful sharing of classified documents.
Trump has vowed to fire Smith, but with him winning the presidency, that probably won’t be necessary. Smith is already speaking with the Department of Justice in how he can end his prosecutions of the now-president.
With many of the guardrails off, there’s no telling how President Trump will use his newly-regained power. Expect a flurry of executive orders on day 1.
abortion
It was under Trump’s previous term that Roe was overturned, effectively putting the power of whether to ban abortion or not in the hands of states. It’s unclear how this will play out in Trump’s second term, as he’s continually flip-flopped on the issue.
For a more conclusive look at how it will likely play out, we’d have to turn to Project 2025, which we will do later.
foreign policy
Trump has made his support for Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu’s government abundantly clear—but also abundantly confusing. On the one hand, he claims to want peace in the region, saying in an interview, “Get it over with and let’s get back to peace and stop killing people”.
On the other hand, Trump has repeated the phrase “finish the job”—in reference to destroying Hamas—but he’s been unclear about how he will achieve this. Trump’s views on Israel is hardly surprising, as in his first term, he made strides to bring the US and Israel closer together.
Another question mark is what will happen in the Ukraine-Russia war. Vladimir Putin ally Dmitry Medvedev has suggested that Trump’s re-election is “useful for Russia”. Trump’s relationship with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has been strained, especially in the wake of the 2019 scandal where Trump pressured Zelensky to investigate his political rivals. Zelensky and Trump met in September 2024, where Trump expressed a desire to bring peace to the region, though he later blamed Joe Biden and Zelensky for the war, omitting any involvement on the part of Vladimir Putin.
the economy
The stand-out economic policy in Trump’s platform is his plan to introduce tariffs on all imports as a way to punish foreign nations (aka China) from profiting from American consumer spending. Some have decried this move as impractical, as a blanket tariff on all imports will cause the average person to spend more on virtually every consumer good they purchase—unless the good was manufactured in the US, which is a vanishingly small percentage of all consumer goods.
However, this is not an out-of-left-field move, as the US and other countries have increasingly been moving toward economic independence. In 2018, Trump introduced tariffs on washing machines. Since then Americans have paid 12 per cent more than they were before. In 2024, Joe Biden increased Trump’s tariffs on EVs by 100 per cent, EV batteries by 50 per cent and solar cells by 25 per cent.
Economists have warned if these tariffs do really happen, it could be “calamitous” for Australia. China takes 35 per cent of all Australian exports, making it our nation’s most important export partner. Should tariffs on Chinese-made goods be put into place, reduced demand could seriously impact our exports, which could lead to a “global trade war”. Figures like Matthew Durban, Dr Shane Oliver and former Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy all warn of the catastrophic effects this move could have on Australia.
And then there’s Project 2025.
Project 2025
Project 2025 has been the spectre looming over this entire election cycle. If you’re confused about what it is, it’s essentially a project that is composed of four key areas:
- A policy guide for the next Republican president
- A database of potential candidates who could serve Donald Trump
- A training course for government employees
- A playbook of suggested actions for Donald Trumps first 180 days in office
Throughout the election campaign, Trump has dodged questions about Project 2025, at times saying he’d “never heard of it” or “didn’t know anything about it”—despite the fact that it’s backed by the Heritage Foundation, a right-wing think tank that has advised Republican presidents since Ronald Reagan. Among its authors is Stephen Miller—a former Trump advisor, and Johnny McEntee, one of Trump’s “most fervent internal loyalty enforcers”.
Project 2025 covers a wide range of suggested policy positions. Here are just a few.
- Culture war issues like eliminating “woke propaganda”, “DEI” “radical gender ideology”, “critical race theory” and more.
- Eliminate any reference to climate change as well as abandoning strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
- Defund media organisations like National Public Radio (NPR), as well as prosecuting media outlets that are critical of the president. Additionally, consider banning TikTok.
- Ban all forms of pornography.
- Reject the notion that abortion is healthcare.
There are far too many issues to list. For a more complete run-down, see the BBC’s article on it—or better yet, read it for yourself.
give us a king
There’s much more that could be said about the election results. I’m sure for many of you, you see the results as a win. For others, it’s a devastating loss.
No matter how you feel, this result reminds me of the biblical story of the coronation of Saul—the first king of Israel (1 Samuel 8). The people come to the prophet Samuel, saying “give us a king to lead us”. God is perhaps understandably upset with this request, saying to Samuel, “It is not you they have rejected, but they have rejected me as their king”.
In response, God tells Samuel to let the people know the consequences of appointing a king to lead them. Samuel says a king will take their sons as soldiers, labourers and blacksmiths. Their daughters will become perfumers, bakers and cooks. The king will take the best land, vineyards and olive groves and give them to his friends. He will take a tithe of all the grain and wine and give them to his friends, too. He’ll take the best livestock and indeed, will essentially enslave the people—but when they cry to God, He will not listen to them. If the people choose to make their bed with a king, they’ll need to sleep in it—for good or ill.
One thing we can say for sure about the election results is that this was the will of the people. The overwhelming percentage of the vote is proof that for better or worse, Trump won and Harris lost—decisively.
The American people have made their bed. Now, they’ll need to sleep in it.
